The Olivier Awards 2025: who should and who will win?

Theatre critic and influencer Mickey-Jo Boucher takes a look at this year's Olivier Awards nominations, looking at who will win and should win, as well as who missed out.

Once again, the Olivier Awards will celebrate what has been an extraordinary year of London Theatre, from singing trains and Russian rockers to rival Greek tragedies and a theatricalised climate conference.

Recognition is spread across various deserving productions with underdogs such as Titanique, Shifters, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button nominated alongside celebrated heavyweights Hello, Dolly!, Oedipus, and Oliver!.

The clear frontrunner, however, is the revival of Fiddler on the Roof matching Hamilton's record-breaking 13 nominations, represented in every acting and creative category.

This unforeseen frontrunner, as well as some staggering snubs, ensured this year's nominations were full of surprises, but having closely watched these shows and their reception in the theatre community, some inevitabilities about the upcoming ceremony seem clear.

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Best New Play

• The Fear of 13 by Lindsey Ferrentino at Donmar Warehouse
• Giant by Mark Rosenblatt at Jerwood Theatre Downstairs at Royal Court Theatre
• Kyoto by Joe Murphy and Joe Robertson at @sohoplace
• Shifters by Benedict Lombe at Duke of York’s Theatre
• The Years adapted by Eline Arbo, in an English version by Stephanie Bain at Almeida Theatre and Harold Pinter Theatre

What will win: Though The Years proved too shocking for some audience members, its powerful portrait of womanhood was massively acclaimed.
What should win: I keep thinking about the necessity, vitality and carefully curated impact of Kyoto, a galvanising theatrical call to action.

Best New Musical

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, music and lyrics by Darren Clark, book and lyrics by Jethro Compton at Ambassadors Theatre
• MJ The Musical, book by Lynn Nottage at Prince Edward Theatre
• Natasha, Pierre and The Great Comet of 1812, music, lyrics and book by Dave Malloy at Donmar Warehouse
• Why Am I So Single?, music, lyrics and book by Toby Marlow and Lucy Moss at Garrick Theatre

What will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will surely see off its biggest rival in Natasha, Pierre and The Great Comet of 1812.
What should win: Few new British musicals are as charming (or as quintessentially British) as the delightful and plucky The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
Should have been nominated: The gift of the summer, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake across New York), whose absence from this list is either a technicality of eligibility or an egregious oversight.

Best Revival

• The Importance of Being Earnest by Oscar Wilde at National Theatre – Lyttelton
• Machinal by Sophie Treadwell at The Old Vic
• Oedipus by Robert Icke at Wyndham’s Theatre
• Waiting For Godot by Samuel Beckett at Theatre Royal Haymarket

What will win: Arguably a dubious inclusion among revivals, the newly adapted Oedipus was lauded by everyone and their mother.
What should win: Not just the best production of Oedipus seen on the London stage this year, Robert Icke birthed a blistering calendar highlight.

Best Musical Revival

• Fiddler on the Roof, music by Jerry Bock, lyrics by Sheldon Harnick, book by Joseph Stein at Regent’s Park Open Air Theatre
• Hello, Dolly!, music and lyrics by Jerry Herman, book by Michael Stewart at The London Palladium
• Oliver!, book, music and lyrics by Lionel Bart, new material and revisions by Cameron Mackintosh at Gielgud Theatre
• Starlight Express, music by Andrew Lloyd Webber, lyrics by Richard Stilgoe at Troubadour Wembley Park Theatre

What will win: Surely the 13 times nominated Fiddler on the Roof is bound to clinch this in one of the year’s toughest categories.
What should win: While I spent a perfect late summer night at Fiddler on the Roof, the West End’s newest Oliver! is nothing short of sensational.

Sir Peter Hall Award for Best Director

• Eline Arbo for The Years
• Jordan Fein for Fiddler on the Roof
• Nicholas Hytner for Giant
• Robert Icke for Oedipus

Who will win: Three of these plays seem set to win the night’s biggest prizes, but Eline Arbo could conquer in a satisfying sequel to last year’s all male nominees.
Who should win: There is no question that Eline Arbo’s masterful overview of an entire lifetime played out on stage deserves extraordinary praise.
Should have been nominated: Sir Matthew Bourne whose direction for Oliver! in fact exceeds his nominated choreography.

Best Actress

• Heather Agyepong for Shifters
• Lesley Manville for Oedipus
• Rosie Sheehy for Machinal
• Meera Syal for A Tupperware of Ashes
• Indira Varma for Oedipus

Who will win: A previous winner for Ghosts, Lesley Manville looks set to collect her second Olivier for another haunting performance.
Who should win: In a year lacking comparably strong roles for women in plays, Lesley Manville towers above in a role which brought her to her knees.

Best Actor

• Adrien Brody for The Fear of 13
• Billy Crudup for Harry Clarke
• Paapa Essiedu for Death of England: Delroy
• John Lithgow for Giant
• Mark Strong for Oedipus

Who will win: It’s suddenly a Hollywood race, with Adrien Brody and John Lithgow the two frontrunners here, both raved about and impossibly close to call.
Who should win: I’m thrilled to see recognition for Billy Crudup and Paapa Essiedu who both gave commanding, layered performances in challenging solo shows.
Should have been nominated: Stephen Kunken, the ingenious performance at the centre of Kyoto.

Best Actor in a Musical

• John Dagleish for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Adam Dannheisser for Fiddler on the Roof
• Myles Frost for MJ The Musical
• Simon Lipkin for Oliver!
• Jamie Muscato for Natasha, Pierre and The Great Comet of 1812

Who will win: Given the comparative magnitude of the role, and in spite of Simon Lipkin’s beguiling Fagin, this is John Dagleish’s statuette to lose.
Who should win: When John Dagleish convinces you, without prosthetics, that he undergoes a lifetime on stage, you understand why he deserves this accolade.
Should have been nominated: Jeevan Braich, a recipient of multiple awards this season for his hugely charismatic debut, on 8 wheels no less!

Best Actress in a Musical

• Chumisa Dornford-May for Natasha, Pierre and The Great Comet of 1812
• Lauren Drew for Titanique
• Clare Foster for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Lara Pulver for Fiddler on the Roof
• Imelda Staunton for Hello, Dolly!

Who will win: Imelda Staunton’s casting in Hello, Dolly! made it a seismic theatrical event, and the Olivier was essentially pre-inscribed.
Who should win: If it were up to me, this would belong to Clare Foster, whose turn in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is every bit as enchanting as her co-star’s.
Should have been nominated: I’ll make no argument for the production, but Stephanie J Block ought to be here for her classy turn in Kiss me, Kate.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

• Jorge Bosch for Kyoto
• Tom Edden for Waiting for Godot
• Elliot Levey for Giant
• Ben Whishaw for Bluets

Who will win: This feels like a wide open category, but I’d put my money on Elliot Levey, also the only previous Olivier Awards winner.
Who should win: Such varied performances are hard to weigh up, but I’ll gladly cheer for Jorge Bosch on behalf of the largely snubbed Kyoto company.
Should have been nominated: Slave Play standout Fisayo Akinade.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

• Sharon D Clarke for The Importance of Being Earnest
• Romola Garai for Giant
• Romola Garai for The Years
• Gina McKee for The Years

Who will win: If, like me, Romola Garai’s performance in The Years reminded voters of her slightly weightier turn in Giant, she has this locked up.
Who should win: It’s impossible to argue that Romola Garai hasn’t had a terrific year on the London stage, and deserves this finale.
Should have been nominated: Call me a broken record, but Kyoto’s Jenna Augen.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Musical

• Liv Andrusier for Fiddler on the Roof
• Amy Di Bartolomeo for The Devil Wears Prada
• Beverley Klein for Fiddler on the Roof
• Maimuna Memon for Natasha, Pierre and The Great Comet of 1812

Who will win: The fantastic Maimuna Memon, earning her second nomination in three years, feels best placed to take this one.
Who should win: Tough to be the flagbearer for a scarcely nominated show, but Amy Di Bartolomeo’s unhinged Emily is the kind of performance awards were made for.
Should have been nominated: The absence of Shanay Holmes from Oliver! comes as a huge, and baffling shock.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Musical

• Andy Nyman for Hello, Dolly!
• Raphael Papo for Fiddler on the Roof
• Layton Williams for Titanique
• Tom Xander for Mean Girls

Who will win: I predict that Layton Williams wins on what feels like a long overdue first nomination for his turn in Titanique.
Who should win: Both Williams and Tom Xander are giving literally show-stopping performances. This is a photo finish I can’t be upset about.
Should have been nominated: I’d have said Jamie Muscato, but he’s surprisingly landed in a leading category, while the delightful Harry Hepple appears pushed out by Hello, Dolly! leading man Andy Nyman.

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Read the full list of nominees for the 2025 Olivier Awards. Find out more about the categories and biggest moments at the historic awards show.

Photo credit: Olivier Awards nominees Adrien Brody, Indira Varma, Liv Andrusier, Lesley Manville, John Dagleish, Romola Garai. (Photos courtesy of productions)